A Post-EU Election World: As in sport, one must abandon traditional strategies at times to adjust to a changing environment. Change is absolutely necessary to keep moving forward.
– Two examples that “pro-EU” (expanding power of Brussels) regimes are trying to adopt to counter the recent surge of “pro European” (defending sovereignty of nation states) forces.
1. In Poland, the PiS is clearly the strongest party, while its traditional rival, Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform, is fading. Their solution to avoid irrelevancy was to form a coalition of five parties to try to combat PiS dominance.
2. With Salvini, Orban and other nationalists surging across Europe, the traditional model that used to rule the EU (EPP and Socialists, similar to Grand Coalition in Germany) were forced to seek others, like ALDE and the Greens, to try to subdue an emerging New Right.
Even Emmanuel Macron has adjusted to try to remain relevant. After being overmatched across Europe by Salvini and then losing France, Macron had to merge with ALDE/Verhofstadt to save face.
While trying not to sound pessimistic (never a solution), the V4 Report also will not overlook reality. At this point, the discussions for top jobs at the Commission are revolving around their choices, and they seem to be setting the agenda.
The risk for the Right is being unable to translate impressive election wins (Salvini, Orban, PiS) into political influence at the European level.
The V4 Report is not dissatisfied with the election results, but with the direction of the post-election trends.
Take for instance the Visegrad Group. Despite their different views on Russia, these nations are natural allies and have worked very well together regarding internal EU core issues, such as migration, sovereignty of nation states, etc. Last summer, together, they defied and defeated Macron and Merkel on migrant quotas.
Yet, Visegrad is swimming against tide in four different EU groups, three of them (ALDE, Socialists, EPP) quite hostile to their beliefs. How is bargaining with a scheming Macron beneficial to their interests? Would their capital not be better utilized figuring out ways to counter the heavy influence of Paris and Berlin, while helping to strengthen Matteo Salvini, who is under great pressure from Brussels and Paris to open the ports to migrants from Libya?
Does Andrej Babis of the Czech Republic believe sitting with Verhofstadt and ALDE will help Visegrad defend its sovereignty and integrity? Does Smer of Slovakia believe Frans Timmermans will help them with migrant quotas? The EPP voted for Article7 procedures against both Hungary and Poland.
Currently, there is no united Central-Eastern European (CEE) presence to counter the influence of Berlin and the West EU bloc. We do not believe this is healthy and it leaves the region vulnerable to undue influence from the West EU Core.
We believe the V4 should start its own conservative CEE/Three Seas Group as the alternative to the EPP. The region needs to develop a strong base to counter the influence of Berlin and Paris. Moreover, this V4+ group – led by Viktor Orban – could then work with Salvini’s group on the right to counter the West EU Grand Coalition.
While the immediate numbers would not be there to form majority, the V4+ bloc would be big enough to thwart efforts of Macron and company to expand the scope of superstate, commit EU to mass migration, develop economic measures to slow the growth of CEE and to push radical multicult initiatives (i.e., EU values) on others.
While disdained by Sweden and the hard left Eurocrats, the V4 is well-respected in the region and would attract other like-minded parties (not necessarily ruling parties) from Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and the Baltic states. Eight of the twelve (67%) Three Seas states did not vote to ratify the UN Migration Compact pushed by Germany.
Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orban are the two strongest personalities on the right and must work together… or both could get swallowed.
We do not believe the EPP can be reformed from within but do believe a better alternative can be created.
The establishment parties of the West EU bloc will not protect or respect the interests of Central Europe. It’s time for conservatives on the right to develop a new game plan to defend their region and Europe.
What is missing? A V4+ center-right bloc led by Orban and the PiS (Poland), including other dissatisfied conservatives in the EPP and CEE, to work jointly with Salvini’s group on the Right to defend the sovereignty and integrity of the European nation state.
In time, they may own the future of Europe.