* Austria: Election Update.
** According to the final poll before the elections, published by Research Affairs/Osterreich on Oct. 5, the center-right Austrian People’s Party (OVP) is preferred by 34 percent of polled voters, followed by the anti-migrant Freedom Party (FPO) with 27 percent and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPO) with 22 percent.
*** Stratfor’s Fourth-Quarter Forecast states that the general election in Austria will reveal the popularity of the far-right in the country. It predicts that, should the far-right enter Austria’s next government, Vienna will be more willing to confront the European Union on issues such as migration, the future of the Schengen Agreement and efforts to revamp the bloc to address southern members’ concerns.
– While the article provides some valuable information, we disagree with their assessment that “the Austrian election will not be as crucial for the future of the European Union as votes in Germany and France were earlier this year.”
The media conveniently overemphasized the importance of the elections in Germany and France, which already possessed governments loyal to Brussels and devoted to the philosophy of mass migration and multiculturalism. There was no major change. The EU merely “maintained” their positions in these states, although Merkel has been somewhat weakened. We never believed change would be initiated from the West, at least not in the near future.
– Austria represents a different dynamic. Chancellor Christian Kern is an ardent supporter of the EU and his party (SPO) was a reliable ally of Germany regarding migration. The SPO and former leader of the OVP (who resigned in May) worked against Viktor Orban and embraced EU Solidarity; as a result, Austria found themselves flooded with aggressive male migrants. Kern’s defeat would represent a major blow to Macron’s plan to expand the power of Brussels.
A coalition of Sebastian Kurz and the Freedom Party would stun and shock both Angela Merkel and the EU. This would represent a major defeat for the EU Core. Granted, the EU will survive this, but they will be severely weakened. On the other hand, the V4 would gain another ally on issues such as migration and sovereignty. This will only strengthen their influence inside of Europe.
The biggest fear of the liberal media and Merkel-Macron alliance is the emergence of a strong coalition of V4 and CEE states to challenge their perceived supremacy in Europe. While this will take time to build, a ruling coalition in Austria which includes the Freedom Party and Sebastian Kurz will be a major step in the right direction.
The Winds of Change are emerging from Central Europe. It’s time to build a strong regional foundation consisting of the V4 and CEE nation states to counter the influence of the EU Core. We do not believe Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and George Soros should be defining the agenda for Europe.
Onward V4! Stay strong and united.