August 23, 2017,
* France: Emmanuel Macron will use Austria and three members of the Party of European Socialists (“red” PES) as a wedge to try to isolate Hungary and Poland and weaken Visegrad. The other aim of Germany and France is to divide the region to prevent the Three Seas Initiative from gaining strength.
** Macron’s popularity at home has fallen sharply and he is in need of some positive news. So he is choosing three weak leaders to push around in an attempt to present himself as a dominant leader. However, this meeting is likely to be of little substance given the irrelevancy of the three leaders involved. The Chancellor of Austria was not even elected directly and has little credibility, especially since he is most likely to be defeated this fall. Bohuslav Sobotka of Czech is very unpopular and he is not seeking reelection. Robert Fico of Slovakia is an ex-communist and Slovakians have little respect for his ethics. Most view him as a political opportunist out for his own personal gain.
– Emmanuel Macron has billed this summit in Austria as a forum to discuss the posted-workers system. This is an EU scheme by which companies in Western Europe can hire cheaper labor from poorer countries in Central-Eastern Europe, although less than 1 percent of all European workers carry out their jobs under the scheme. Macron is following Merkel’s “Dublin strategy”, in which they call for EU solidarity, but conveniently change the rules of the game to suit their needs.
– The V4 Report encourages “hard ball” negotiations between member states. This is how the world works. However, Sobotka and Fico cannot just surrender by merely accepting the demands of a Mediterranean nation in decline. If there are to be reforms to this system, the V4 must demand something in return, most notably the end to all sanctions regarding their refusal to accept migrant quotas. Why not use their leverage, instead of bowing down to Western Europe? Issues pertaining to national security, such as migration, must be left to the nation states, not Brussels.
– Macron’s intentional choice, supported by Austria’s left-wing Chancellor Christian Kern, to exclude Visegrad’s two most influential countries (Hungary and Poland) is quite revealing. Expect the leaders of the EU and Western Europe to utilize the “divide and conquer” strategy in the coming months in an effort to isolate Visegrad’s strongest leaders. Macron knows the leaders of Hungary and Poland will not roll-over easily for his demands, but senses the vulnerability and weakness of the leaders of both Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Robert Fico is easily swayed for personal gain, while Bohuslav Sobotka will end his term this year and is looking for a post.
– Austria’s decision to invite Czech and Slovak leaders but not Polish or Hungarian representatives to meet Macron also reveals Chancellor Kern’s bitter disdain for both Hungary and Poland, who have challenged Austria’s influence over Central Europe. The strong and effective response of Viktor Orban to the migrant crisis has embarrassed Kern, whose feeble reactions allowed Austria to be overwhelmed and controlled by the the actions and behaviors of others. Migrant crime has skyrocketed in Austria. Kern, who was appointed and not elected by the people, has been upstaged in Austria by a young Sebastian Kurz, who shares many of Orban’s views on migration. Austria, under the socialist Kern, seeks to weaken the Visegrad Group to isolate Poland and Hungary from the Czech Republic and Slovakia. However, the dynamics will soon be changing in both Austria and the Czech Republic.
– The real battle for the future regards the Three Seas Initiative, which seeks to build a strong regional foundation for the V4 and CEE states to prevent any major power, whether from the West or East, from dominating them again. This is what Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron fear the most, and one of the reasons why they have targeted Poland.
– German officials openly admit that the Three Seas Initiative, which seeks independence but not confrontation with Berlin, has the potential to weaken their influence over the nation states of Central and Eastern Europe. They will raise the false choice of East vs West, but this is pure propaganda used by those who seek to maintain their control over the region.
– The people of the V4 and CEE will have to decide their own future. Surely, they see the open-border mayhem and ongoing terror in Western Europe. The V4 Report does not believe the multicult way of life in Western Europe is compatible with the values, beliefs and culture of the V4 and CEE states. Why become entangled in the chains of EU Core when the V4 and CEE states have the tools to build their own solid foundation. True Freedom is the ability to control one’s own destiny.
Onward V4! Freedom is not following the path of France or Belgium, but building your own Core.