* Austria: Conservative parties campaigning against open-borders, multiculturalism and mass migration enjoyed a strong showing on Sunday in the Parliamentary Elections. Both Sebastian Kurz (OVP) and the Freedom Party (FPO) share beliefs more in common with Viktor Orban and the V4 than Angela Merkel and the EU.
“If there’s one topic that really dominated the campaign, it’s migration and integration,” said Sylvia Kritzinger, a political analyst at the University of Vienna. “Especially with Kurz, it always came back to immigration. We had very little discussion of the issues beyond that.”
** We expect the next Chancellor of Austria to be Sebastian Kurz (OVP), who should form a ruling coalition with the Freedom Party (FPO). This coalition, much to the dismay of French President Emmanuel Macron, would likely be skeptical about proposals for deeper fiscal integration in the eurozone.
However, while the V4 Report remains very optimistic, this coalition is not certain. Roadblocks remain and we will address a few of our concerns over the next few days.
*** The OVP Party, led by Sebastian Kurz, tallied almost 32% of the vote. The Freedom Party (FPO) also fared well and improved strongly on its 20.5% share of the vote in the last elections. The FPO garnered 26% of the vote, nearly matching their all-time high which occurred in 1999.
The left-wing Social Democrats (SPO), led by Chancellor Christian Kern, fell dramatically and captured only 27.1% of the vote. The poor results of the SPO were seen as another devastating blow to Angela Merkel and the EU Core. Only the total collapse of the far-left Green Party saved them from further embarrassment. The SPO-led government embraced Angela Merkel’s “EU Solidarity” on migration. As a result, they allowed themselves to be flooded with aggressive male migrants from violent regions.
**** Kurz, who popularity soared with his promise to combat mass migration and multiculturalism, ran a campaign that often mirrored the agenda of Visegrad and the Freedom Party itself. Kurz wants to slash welfare benefits for migrants, secure the borders and relocate the illegal migrants from Africa and the Middle East to camps outside of Europe.
Sebastian Kurz’s hardline policy on migration appears to have taken away votes from the FPO. Before Kurz took over as Party leader in May, the OVP appeared stuck in third place (low 20’s). At that time, the Freedom Party occupied first place with numbers that mirrored those of Kurz’s winning margin of today (low 30’s), while the SPO’s support changed little since May (high 20’s).
It is quite clear the majority of Austrians (58%) desired a conservative government coalition. We believe Kurz would lose much credibility if he tried to bypass the FPO. Clearly, Austrians voted for change, and not for the old establishment coalitions of the past.
The election outcome “is more evidence of Europe’s turn to the right since 2015,” said Matthew Goodwin, political scientist at the U.K.’s Kent University.
***** As noted in our posts since May, the V4 Report was very enthusiastic and confident regarding a Kurz-FPO coalition. We still are, but the EU, UN and left-wing media will now begin their campaign to sabotage this coalition. The V4 Report has some friendly post-election advice for Sebastian Kurz:
1. Remember the issues and ideas that got you elected. It was your tough stance on migration and multiculturalism, not slogans about EU Solidarity.
2. Remember who showed up to assist Austria and was most responsible for closing the Balkan route. It was not Germany or the EU Core, but Viktor Orban and the V4 (plus Macedonia). Yes, Austria played a role, but it was largely the efforts of Hungary and others that helped secure Europe’s southern border, reducing the flow of migrants northward.
3. Remember who will be there to support you in the future. The FPO and V4 share your goals in securing the borders and deporting the migrants outside of Europe. George Soros and the leaders of Brussels? Their goals? A permanent and ongoing mechanism to transport migrants from Africa and Turkey straight to Europe for “relocation”. Emmanuel Macron is even sending “missions” to Niger and Chad. It seems the EU Core has nice plans for Vienna and Salzburg.
Elections are easy, defying the EU requires much more stamina and strength. Viktor Orban has the experience and has been quite successful. We recommend Budapest as the first official visit for Chancellor Kurz for some wise advice regarding the realities of Central Europe and the EU.
How did Angela Merkel help Austria? When the EU Core comes calling, Mr. Kurz must remember who his real friends are. If you work with them, Viktor Orban and the V4 will be your best allies.