Bavaria election: Merkel’s allies in Grand Coalition (CSU, SPD) humiliated in election.
This will further destabilize Angela Merkel and her embattled government in Germany, which in our opinion, could ultimately weaken the influence of Brussels as well.
As the V4 Report said in our post yesterday, “We believe change can only occur in Germany with the repudiation of Merkel’s Grand Coalition. While the results of this change may lead to short-term pain (especially if it benefits the Greens), we believe it may be the only way to remove the barriers that prevent the emergence of a legitimate opposition from the right in Germany.”
* Both the anti-migration AfD and far-left Green Party appear to be the beneficiaries of the election debacles of the CSU and SPD.
Many German pundits will point to the second place finish of the Greens (18.5%) in an attempt claim that Bavaria is becoming more liberal. However, this would be a stretch. While the Greens increased their vote by 10% from 2013, it appears to have come at the expense of the socialists (SPD). Martin Schultz’s SPD Party experienced a 10.6% loss and finished behind the AfD.
The biggest increase (11%) was that of the AfD Party. The anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland, which entered the national parliament for the first time after a federal election last year, repeated the feat in Bavaria – once considered to be off-limits – and will enter the regional parliament for the first time having secured 11% of the vote.
Likewise, the AfD delivered the blow to the CSU. The party of Manfred Weber, Markus Söder and Horst Seehofer finished first but saw its support plummet by over 12%… their worst election performance for more than six decades. The party’s support fell below 40% for the first time since 1954.
Yet, will the CSU learn its lesson? While they have shunned the AFD, they had no problems attempting to form a government alongside the radical leftist Greens (Jamaica) a few months ago. In fact, the CSU was ready to reach for the bottom until another party pulled-out of the deal.
In Bavaria, The Free Voters, a regional party, will also enter the parliament, having secured a historic 11.6%. Its leader, Hubert Aiwanger, said shortly after the result that he had called the CSU leadership to start coalition negotiations.
The Greens are also considered a possibility, but this is not likely.
** Some may be dismayed over the poor showing of the CSU, noting the support they received from both Viktor Orban and Sebastian Kurz. The V4 Report is not.
As we posted a month earlier ? We strongly believe that the EPP must be severely weakened in the next EU Parliament elections. We believe the same regarding the CSU party in Bavaria.
The so-called “sisters” enable and provide cover for Angela Merkel while conveniently maintaining their positions of power. One party (EPP) works to expand Germany’s influence in Brussels, while the other (CSU) enables the Grand Coalition in Germany.
Both, in our opinion, remain obstacles to positive change and roadblocks for other conservative parties to emerge. ?
While any change can involve short-term pain, we view the first step towards positive change must involve the weakening of Merkel’s circle of influence in Berlin.
Sunday’s results delivered another blow to the future of Angela Merkel and the Grand Coalition. The state elections in Hesse two weeks from now will likely send Merkel and her allies another tough message.