Czech Republic Election Update

Czech Republic Election Update

* Czech Republic Election Update: The STEM / MARK survey for MF DNES.

** The ANO Party of Andrej Babis seems to be weakening, although they still hold a commanding lead. Once enjoying support in the low-mid thirties, they have fallen to 27.7%. Despite his anti-migrant rhetoric, many Czechs seem to distrust Babis. According to the CVVM Institute, Babis was trusted by 59% of Czechs in 2015. Today, that figure has fallen to 37%.

While we are impressed by his recent statements in opposition to the multicult/migration agenda of the EU Core (please see the article following this post from the Gatestone Institute), we will judge him on his actions, not his pre-election talk.

However, we do have deep concerns with the ANO Party, especially EU Minister Vera Jourova, who has unjustly attacked both Hungary and Poland while claiming “open society values are at the heart of EU action.” We are also very uncomfortable with ANO’s close ties to EU radical Guy Verhofstadt and his ALDE group in Brussels. We will be following the interactions between Babis and these two very closely.

*** The upward mover and main story of the recent poll seems to be Tomio Okamura and the anti-migrant SPD. They have recently moved into fourth place (9.2%), surpassing the establishment parties of ODS, Top 09 and KDU-CSL. If their support holds, they could put themselves in position to influence Czech policy, much to the chagrin of Brussels.

**** While the Czechs are sending the establishment parties a message, another new Party (Pirates) has surged recently. However, we are not impressed with their message or leader. Voters looking for legitimate alternatives would gain more value and insight by listening to the solid ideas of Petr Robejsek (Realisty).

The election is less than two weeks away and the ANO Party still enjoys a commanding lead. The main suspense will be the final positioning of the various parties trailing Babis and the complex coalition building that will occur after the votes are counted. This will be very interesting and will no doubt create much drama and controversy in the Czech Republic for the next several months.

This election is quite complex and it is very hard to predict who will comprise the next ruling coalition. However, we do know the Czech people are extremely skeptical of the EU and strong opponents of Angela Merkel’s migration agenda. They will not tolerate leaders who would embrace EU Solidarity on migration or multiculturalism. Andrej Babis would be advised not to cross that line.