EU Parliamentary Projection.
The Socialists take a big hit, down seven seats from last month’s projection.
Meanwhile, the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) is looking to become the fourth-largest group in the EU Parliament if elections were held today.
Across the EU, national parties affiliated with the ECR have a combined popular vote share of 10.5% in April, 2.4 points above ECR’s 2019 election result, and the strongest performance measured since Brexit came into force in February 2020. Part of this rise can be attributed to the increase of support for the Italian Brothers of Italy (FDI-Meloni) which has been steadily rising in the past years, and which now stands at 18% in the latest Europe Elects polling average of Italy.
The fake conservatives (EPP Party) of Germany are on a downward trend, although not as bad as the Socialists.
Interesting to see how this all changes if Orban and Fidesz actually join the ECR Group.
Although it’s unlikely for now, if the ECR Group and Salvini’s ID Group were to merge, it would become the third-largest group in the Parliament.
On the other hand, the EU’s Grand Establishment of EPP, Socialists and RE Groups, which put together the EU Commission of President Ursula von der Leyen, would continue to hold a comfortable de facto majority of 395 out of 705 total seats.
This is the multicult EU majority that has caused immense damage across Europe over the last several years; it needs to be broken.
With the Greens likely to join this majority in key decisions, the future does not look bright for conservatives and defenders of the nation-states inside the EU…and new voters eventually absorbed from mass migration will only strengthen their grip in the future.
Given the demographics of the West EU bloc, we just are not convinced that the numbers are there to change the EU from the inside.
The big EU budget (and all the strings attached) dangled about the EU does not help matters. Unlike the UK (a big net contributor), recipient states are unlikely to leave.
This is the slippery slope that can push some to achieve their dream of a federal EU…one step at a time.